exploring probable futures crowdsourcing predictive wisdom computing critical contingencies generating intelligent estimations aggregating intelligent predictions mapping the future calculating intelligent understanding forecasting predictive insights modeling precise estimations forecasting probable estimations predicting definitive predictions computing precise estimations assembling definitive contingencies calculating intelligent insights


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

In a recent interview the CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, stated that Tesla would be able to roll out a fully autonomous autopilot (software) for their fleet by the end of 2020 that would enable a driver to fall asleep behind the wheel and wake up in the parking lot of their destination. “I think we will be ‘feature-complete’ on full self-driving this year (2019), meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year,” Musk said. He caveats that doesn't mean the autopilot will always work, instead claiming Tesla will enter the “march of nines”, increasing certainty incrementally.

That being said he has little influence on the regulators’ confidence, certainty, and conservatism, which can vary a lot between jurisdictions.

Currently, Tesla's automated driving features is currently classified as a level 2 on the a five level scale according to the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE International) five levels of vehicle automation.

By the end of 2020, will Tesla roll out autopilot features that are classified by SAE International as level 4 or 5 on their 2016 five point scale?

Resolves positive when: Autopilot of described SAE level 4 or 5, as defined by SAE international's 2016 classification, is rolled out on at least county level anywhere (may not be the US).

  • SAE level 4 is characterized as ("mind off"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, and no driver attention is ever required for safety, e.g. the driver may safely go to sleep or leave the driver's seat. Self-driving is supported only in limited spatial areas (geofenced) or under special circumstances, like traffic jams. Outside of these areas or circumstances, the vehicle must be able to safely abort the trip, e.g. park the car, if the driver does not retake control.

  • SAE level 5 is defined as Level 5 ("steering wheel optional"): No human intervention is required at all. An example would be a robotic taxi.

Resolves positive if any autopilot system, or "feature" released by Tesla before the end of 2020 is is judged by experts and/or common consensus to meet SAE's 2016 classification as level 4 or above. Note that this judgement may occur after 2020, but must involve an autopilot system or version released before the end of 2020.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.