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19
forecasters
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19 forecasters
Conditional Cup
3 more...
condition
Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?
Resolved:
No
19 forecasters
if yes
if no
2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
91%
91%
Resolved:
Annulled
2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
99%
99%
Resolved:
Yes
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if Yes
91%
if No
(Yes)
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11 comments
240 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
Gavin Newsom
26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.4%
Pete Buttigieg
7.4%
Other
43.5%
4 others
16 comments
161 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
chance
14 comments
247 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
JD Vance
44.8%
Ron DeSantis
4.7%
Marco Rubio
17.7%
Other
27%
4 others
5 comments
50 forecasters
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Democratic Party
59.9%
Republican Party
40%
Other
0.1%
5 comments
30 forecasters
Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?
60%
chance
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
0 comments
93 forecasters
No debates between nominees in US elections in the following years?
2021-2022
Annulled
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
Annulled
2027-2028
8%
5 comments
25 forecasters
US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028
1%
chance