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19 forecasters
0 comments
19 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?

Resolved:No
19 forecasters
if yes
if no

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

91%
91%
Resolved:Annulled

2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

99%
99%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes91%
if No(Yes)
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11 comments240 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?

Gavin Newsom26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.4%
Pete Buttigieg7.4%
Other43.5%
4 others
16 comments161 forecasters

Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

61%chance
14 comments247 forecasters

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

JD Vance44.8%
Ron DeSantis4.7%
Marco Rubio17.7%
Other27%
4 others
5 comments50 forecasters

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Democratic Party59.9%
Republican Party40%
Other0.1%
5 comments30 forecasters

Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?

60%chance
2 comments93 forecasters

Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?

2021-2022result: No
2023-2024result: No
2025-20264%
2027-202815%
0 comments93 forecasters

No debates between nominees in US elections in the following years?

2021-2022Annulled
2023-2024result: No
2025-2026Annulled
2027-20288%
5 comments25 forecasters

US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028

1%chance