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A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?

Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.

However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[2] To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[3]

The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by Baumol’s “cost disease”: sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[4]

Brynjolfsson et al.[5] have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies.

With the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the S&P500 has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see data).

Hence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?

Will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?

This resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2025. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF.

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