127 forecasters

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

Current estimate

1.1×10¹⁷ FLOPS

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 13, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2075

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2075

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2019