44 comments
127 forecasters
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Current estimate
9.9×10¹⁶ FLOPS
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2019
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
7620 $
(138 - 381k)
41 forecasters
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1% chance
434
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
3 forecasters