composing definitive understanding aggregating calibrated estimations exploring precise futures predicting calibrated futures formulating accurate futures mapping the future composing contingent contingencies exploring precise wisdom generating calibrated estimations aggregating calibrated wisdom composing quantitative understanding mapping probable wisdom forecasting intelligent estimations exploring quantitative wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?

Andrew Yang (Wikipedia) is a democratic candidate for president known, among other things, for proposing a Universal Basic Income dubbed the "Freedom Dividend" and a focus on the impact of automation on jobs.

He's relatively young for a presidential candidate, with an entrepreneurial background and an extensive policy platform. Including everything from single-payer healthcare to a "carbon fee and dividend" and the legalization of marijuana.

The Washington Post wrote a piece showing evidence of his growing support: "Andrew Yang is running for president. Haven’t heard of him? You will soon."

Nate Silver has also been tweeting about it (11 March 2019):

"Prediction markets think Andrew Yang has approximately the same chance of winning the Democratic nomination (~4%) as Warren, Klobuchar or Booker."

As can be seen on PredictIt.

But can Yang, a complete outsider, really grab the nomination? We will see.

This resolves positive if Yang is nominated by the Democratic party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2020.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.