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Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?

Participants may be vaguely aware that a referendum in the UK occasionally known as "brexit," calling for the UK to leave the European union, has passed by a simple majority.

This is, however, not quite the end of the story. The referendum was, technically, non-binding, and many things must happen in order to actually enact withdrawal from the EU. Most centrally, perhaps, is that per Article 50 of the EU treaty, the nation wishing to exit provides a notification to the EU, negotiates the withdrawal terms and sets a date of of when the treaty terms no longer apply. See this description in Wikipedia.

In this question we give Metaculus predictors a chance to win back some of their hard (for the most part) lost points on brexit by asking if the UK will actually exit in the next several years.

We'll set the bar slightly lower by setting the resolution criterion to be that the UK has, by end of 2016, officially filed notice with the EU per Article 50 of its intention to withdraw. If this question resolves positively, we can launch another one regarding the negotiations and timescales.

(Edit: 7/2/16 to remove mention of 2020 and clarify title)


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.