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Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?
Participants may be vaguely aware that a referendum in the UK occasionally known as "brexit," calling for the UK to leave the European union, has passed by a simple majority.
This is, however, not quite the end of the story. The referendum was, technically, non-binding, and many things must happen in order to actually enact withdrawal from the EU. Most centrally, perhaps, is that per Article 50 of the EU treaty, the nation wishing to exit provides a notification to the EU, negotiates the withdrawal terms and sets a date of of when the treaty terms no longer apply. See this description in Wikipedia.
In this question we give Metaculus predictors a chance to win back some of their hard (for the most part) lost points on brexit by asking if the UK will actually exit in the next several years.
We'll set the bar slightly lower by setting the resolution criterion to be that the UK has, by end of 2016, officially filed notice with the EU per Article 50 of its intention to withdraw. If this question resolves positively, we can launch another one regarding the negotiations and timescales.
(Edit: 7/2/16 to remove mention of 2020 and clarify title)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.