crowdsourcing precise forecasts mapping contingent estimations mapping critical understanding assembling critical predictions computing predictive predictions mapping the future modeling definitive understanding crowdsourcing intelligent futures assembling quantitative wisdom exploring critical estimations crowdsourcing calibrated understanding assembling intelligent futures calculating definitive insights mapping critical understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?

Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.

The country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.

When, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?

For this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as ">2050". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.

The question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.

In the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.