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When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?
Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.
The country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.
When, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?
For this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as ">2050". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.
The question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.
In the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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