Question

Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

62 comments62

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction

30%

(25% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 1, 2024

Closes:

Aug 2, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 2, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 1, 2024

Closes:

Aug 2, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 2, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

At least eight killed in deadly Kenya protests: What we know

Al Jazeera•Jun 26, 2025

Kenyans Mark One-Year Anniversary of Youth-Led Uprising That Was Violently Suppressed

Democracy Now•Jun 25, 2025

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Al Jazeera•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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85%

Will Emerson Mnangagwa be president of Zimbabwe on January 1st, 2029?

23%

Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?

15%