Question

Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?

Resolved:No

57 comments57

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

22%

(20% - 26.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 22%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 8, 2024

Closes:

Aug 9, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 17, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady, but sees fewer cuts next year on stagflation concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady, but sees fewer cuts next year on stagflation concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 8, 2024

Closes:

Aug 9, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 17, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 9, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady, but sees fewer cuts next year on stagflation concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady, but sees fewer cuts next year on stagflation concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%