Question

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction

65%

(30% - 82%)

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50%

community: 65%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Aug 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2024

Law

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says OpenAI is delaying its open-weight model — again

•Aug 8, 2025

The US Makes Its First Modern Foray Into Open-Source Models With GPT-OSS, But How Does It Stack Up Against Chinese Counterparts? Hint: Pretty Close

•Aug 7, 2025

The U.S. government wants to go ‘all in’ on AI. There are big risks

•Aug 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

34%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Aug 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2024

Law

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says OpenAI is delaying its open-weight model — again

•Aug 8, 2025

The US Makes Its First Modern Foray Into Open-Source Models With GPT-OSS, But How Does It Stack Up Against Chinese Counterparts? Hint: Pretty Close

•Aug 7, 2025

The U.S. government wants to go ‘all in’ on AI. There are big risks

•Aug 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

34%

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%