12 comments
18 forecasters
Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?
15%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 10, 2024
Closes:Nov 10, 2024
Resolved:Feb 3, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2024
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
60% chance
49
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
9 forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
95% chance
81