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2
19 forecasters
1
2 comments
19 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

19 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

5%
5%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

3%
3%
if Yes5%
if No3%
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0 comments33 forecasters

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

41%chance
12 comments129 forecasters

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

56%chance
5 comments45 forecasters

AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?

40%chance
10 comments11 forecasters

Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?

48%chance
17 comments149 forecasters

Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040

85%chance
26 comments148 forecasters

AI incident causes $1bn damage before 2032

76%chance
1 comment78 forecasters

5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?

5%chance
9 comments84 forecasters

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

3.5%chance