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If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?

The Brexit Party is a Eurosceptic, pro-Brexit, political party in the United Kingdom, formed in 2019. As of April 2019, the party's representation consists of nine members of the European Parliament, all of whom were originally elected as UK Independence Party (UKIP) candidates. The party is led by one of these MEPs, former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who announced he would stand as a candidate for the party in any future European Parliament elections, in the event the UK had not left the European Union.

The UK is currently attempting to exit the European Union before holding the European Parliament elections on 23 May 2019, but the UK may be forced to participate if it cannot exit the EU with a deal on or before 22 May 2019 and the UK is now making preparations to take part.

In the last UK European Parliament elections in 2014, before the 2016 Brexit vote, the main eurosceptic party of the day (UKIP) won the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote, with 24 seats and 26.6% of the vote.

This question asks: If the UK participates in the 2019 European Parliament elections, what percentage of the UK popular vote will be won by the Brexit Party?

Resolves when final results are released by electoral authorities in the UK or European Union, or resolves ambiguously if the UK does not participate in the elections.


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