32 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

15%chance

15%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 14, 2024

Closes:

Aug 15, 2024

Resolved:

Aug 26, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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Severe Strain of Monkeypox Virus Detected in Los Angeles

Breitbart•Oct 17, 2025

Two monkeypox cases in California under investigation

Independent•Oct 17, 2025

California mpox cases raise concerns. But health officials say the risk remains low

Associated Press•Oct 17, 2025

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