composing predictive wisdom forecasting accurate predictions calculating critical insights predicting probable futures assembling definitive contingencies mapping the future delivering precise contingencies predicting precise wisdom crowdsourcing accurate predictions formulating accurate predictions exploring accurate understanding calculating intelligent insights predicting definitive estimations crowdsourcing critical understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?

Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back at least to the Great Depression.

Recently Democratic Candidate Andrew Yang has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.

When will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?

In order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:

  1. Unconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. "all citizens over the age of 18"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the EITC do not count).

  2. Substantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.

  3. Guaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count.

  4. Ongoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.

Additional details:

  • If a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country.

  • "Country" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A "virtual nation" or territory would not count.

  • The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.

  • The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms "country" "person" and "income" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.