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How many cases of measles will be recorded in the United States for the year 2020?
According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), As of April 24, 2019, 695 cases of measles had been recorded in the US from 22 states so far this year. This is the greatest number of cases reported in the United States since measles was eliminated from this country in 2000.
The World Health Organization reported this month that there has been a 300% increase in the number of measles cases worldwide compared with the first 3 months of 2018.
This question asks: For the full year 2020, how many US cases of measles will be recorded by the CDC?
Resolution should cite a press release or other public statement from the CDC. In the event that an estimate range is published rather than a specific number, the resolution shall focus on the median of any estimate range.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.