Authors:
Opened:Aug 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2025
Resolved:Jan 25, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 24, 2024
When will Claude 5 be released?
21 Aug 2026
(04 May 2026 - 09 Jan 2027)
21 Aug 2026
(04 May 2026 - 09 Jan 2027)
10 forecasters
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
25 Mar 2029
(10 Aug 2027 - Jul 2033)
9 forecasters
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
16 forecasters