Question

Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?

Resolved:No

62 comments62

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

30%

(22.5% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 18, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady but pencils in two cuts for 2025

•Jun 20, 2025

Federal Reserve Holds Key Interest Rate Steady

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 18, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed keeps rates steady but pencils in two cuts for 2025

•Jun 20, 2025

Federal Reserve Holds Key Interest Rate Steady

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02