Question

Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?

Resolved:Yes

59 comments59

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

32.5%

(25% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 32.5%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 18, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July

CNBC•Jun 20, 2025

Fed's Latest Economic Projections Hint at Stagflation Concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 18, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Labor Market Risks Might Prompt Fed To Cut Rates Faster Than Planned

Forbes•Jun 21, 2025

Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July

CNBC•Jun 20, 2025

Fed's Latest Economic Projections Hint at Stagflation Concerns

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

78%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

75%

What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years?

4.02