33 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?

7%chance

7%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 7% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 22, 2024

Closes:

Aug 23, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 23, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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Russia raises tensions with NATO as Putin shows off his battlefield nuclear weapons

Independent•Sep 16, 2025

Russia shows off conventional and nuclear military might in drills — and raises tensions with NATO

Associated Press•Sep 16, 2025

Trump envoy warns America could 'kick Russia's a*s' on the battlefield in the event of all-out war and says Putin's troops 'couldn't march to Berlin or anywhere else'

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

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