Question

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No
54
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction
7%
(5% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
0.0
Community Baseline Score
0.0
Authors:
Tom_Metaculus
Opened:Aug 22, 2024
Closes:Aug 23, 2024
Resolves:Oct 2, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2024
Include Bots:Yes
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