Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
54
33
forecasters
54 comments
33 forecasters
AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3
1 more...
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
No
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (54)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
0 comments
135 forecasters
Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran Before 2027?
1.4%
chance
22 comments
136 forecasters
NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?
6%
chance
12 comments
16 forecasters
When will Russia attack NATO?
Current estimate
26 Aug 2030
10 comments
59 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
51%
chance
32 comments
957 forecasters
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
21%
chance
35 comments
193 forecasters
No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations before 2035
74.1%
chance
0 comments
34 forecasters
US Reaction to NATO Offensive Detonation
75%
chance
7 comments
93 forecasters
Will Zelenskyy cede land for peace?
25%
chance