Question

Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

49 comments49

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction

40%

(31.5% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Measles Outbreak: Cases In Texas Over 300 As Illness Spreads To At Least 17 States

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Measles Outbreak: Cases In Texas Near 280 As Illness Spreads To 15 States

Forbes•Mar 21, 2025

We’ve entered a forever war with bird flu

Verge•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

13%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 23, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 2, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 24, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Measles Outbreak: Cases In Texas Over 300 As Illness Spreads To At Least 17 States

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Measles Outbreak: Cases In Texas Near 280 As Illness Spreads To 15 States

Forbes•Mar 21, 2025

We’ve entered a forever war with bird flu

Verge•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

13%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

10%