Question

Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

57 comments57

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction

35%

(23% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

0.0

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 28, 2024

Closes:

Aug 29, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 29, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Map Shows Range of Japan's Missiles Targeting China and North Korea

Newsweek•Sep 1, 2025

Japan Announces Plan to Counter China's Armed Coast Guard Fleet

Newsweek•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

106

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

43%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Aug 28, 2024

Closes:

Aug 29, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 29, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Map Shows Range of Japan's Missiles Targeting China and North Korea

Newsweek•Sep 1, 2025

Japan Announces Plan to Counter China's Armed Coast Guard Fleet

Newsweek•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone?

106

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

27%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

43%