Question

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?

Resolved:Ambiguous

58 comments58

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction

20.3%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20.3%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 3, 2024

Closes:

Sep 4, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Lebanon Continues Hezbollah Disarmament Talks as Israeli Strikes South

AntiWar•Jul 3, 2025

Hezbollah Resurfaces After Absence During Iran War, Vowing to ‘Never Bow Down’

Breitbart•Jul 1, 2025

Lebanon Struggles to Navigate US, Israeli Demands to Disarm Hezbollah Before Peace Talks

AntiWar•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

54%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 3, 2024

Closes:

Sep 4, 2024

Resolves:

Oct 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 4, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

Lebanon Continues Hezbollah Disarmament Talks as Israeli Strikes South

AntiWar•Jul 3, 2025

Hezbollah Resurfaces After Absence During Iran War, Vowing to ‘Never Bow Down’

Breitbart•Jul 1, 2025

Lebanon Struggles to Navigate US, Israeli Demands to Disarm Hezbollah Before Peace Talks

AntiWar•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

54%