🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?

Resolved :Ambiguous20.3%
58
Total Forecasters33
Community Prediction20.3% (15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 20.3%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:
Tom_Metaculus
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Include Bots:Yes
Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
2024 Leaderboard

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