Question

Will Starliner Calypso disintegrate in the atmosphere by September 30?

Resolved:Annulled

55 comments55

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

(5% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 6, 2024

Closes:

Sep 7, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 7, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 7, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

A European Startup's Spacecraft Made It to Orbit. Now It's Lost at Sea

Wired•Jun 26, 2025

SpaceX Starship exploded again. What's next for Elon Musk's company after latest setback?

USA Today•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

38%

Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

Will NASA replace the Space Launch System (SLS) with another launch vehicle for its Artemis missions before 2030?

90%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 6, 2024

Closes:

Sep 7, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 7, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 7, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

A European Startup's Spacecraft Made It to Orbit. Now It's Lost at Sea

Wired•Jun 26, 2025

SpaceX Starship exploded again. What's next for Elon Musk's company after latest setback?

USA Today•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

38%

Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026?

Will NASA replace the Space Launch System (SLS) with another launch vehicle for its Artemis missions before 2030?

90%