Question

Will Starliner Calypso be stuck in space on September 30?

Resolved:Annulled

52 comments52

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

12%

(5% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 6, 2024

Closes:

Sep 7, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 7, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 7, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

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90%

Authors:

Tom_Metaculus

Opened:

Sep 6, 2024

Closes:

Sep 7, 2024

Resolves:

Sep 7, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 7, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2024 Leaderboard

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Wired•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

38%

Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?

10%

Will NASA replace the Space Launch System (SLS) with another launch vehicle for its Artemis missions before 2030?

90%