Question
Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community?
Resolved:4Total Forecasters27
Community Prediction
1.62
(0.276 - 2.94)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-9 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.2756 | — |
| median | 1.618 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.942 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >9 | 0.5% | — |
What was the final result?4
Community Baseline Score
-1.9
Community Peer Score
39.0
Authors:
Opened:Sep 6, 2024
Closes:Sep 11, 2024
Resolves:Sep 15, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 7, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Sep 6, 2024
Closes:Sep 11, 2024
Resolves:Sep 15, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 7, 2024