Question
When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?
Total Forecasters173
Community Prediction
May 2071
(Jun 2041 - 2195)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Jun 2041 | — |
| median | May 2071 | — |
| upper 75% | 2195 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2300 | 19.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 29, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2019
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
177k
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
7223
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%
Authors:
Opened:Jun 29, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 1, 2019
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
177k
If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?
7223
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%