Question

Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?

32 comments32

Make a Prediction

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.0

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

45%

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Despite $157 Billion Valuation, Why OpenAI Won’t Change The World

Forbes•Oct 3, 2024

Will AI one day win a Nobel Prize?

Raw Story•Oct 3, 2024

OpenAI Has A $157 Billion Valuation But It Might Not Change The World

Forbes•Oct 3, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

45%

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?