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Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads

Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:

1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?)

2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.

Option 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so.

Note that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, ("Pokemon auto"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.

The question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.


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