6 comments
16 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
22 Feb 2026
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2024
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
47 forecasters
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
08 Dec 2027
(30 Apr 2027 - 10 Feb 2029)
08 Dec 2027
(30 Apr 2027 - 10 Feb 2029)
40 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters