9 comments
18 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
11 Apr 2026
Top Key Factors
Authors:
Opened:Oct 1, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 4, 2024
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What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
50.1%
(38.6 - 61.6)
50.1%
(38.6 - 61.6)
60 forecasters
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
27 Jul 2027
(28 Oct 2026 - 02 Sep 2028)
27 Jul 2027
(28 Oct 2026 - 02 Sep 2028)
51 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Apr 2031
(21 Oct 2026 - Nov 2041)
Apr 2031
(21 Oct 2026 - Nov 2041)
182 forecasters