89 comments
58 forecasters
How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 9, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2024
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
11
(6 - 19)
11
(6 - 19)
49 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
40.6 users
(33.8 - 45.1)
40.6 users
(33.8 - 45.1)
45 forecasters
How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?
6 members
(4 - 8)
6 members
(4 - 8)
91 forecasters