🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?

Resolved :107.95
5
89
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction7.95 (7.02 - 8.88)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
7.015
7.951
8.883

What was the final result?10

Community Baseline Score
30.6
Community Peer Score
47.5
Authors:
skmmcj
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Metaculus
2024 Leaderboard

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