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20 forecasters

1

20 forecasters

Threshold 2030 Econ Forecasting

Will AI outperform superforecasters before 2030?

42%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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12 comments177 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

2 comments118 forecasters

AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

5 comments11 forecasters

When will LLMs beat superforecasters at ForecastBench?

Current estimate

16 comments129 forecasters

6-Month AI Weather Forecasting?

10 comments76 forecasters

Before 2032 will central bank or finance ministry credit an ai forecast?

14 comments62 forecasters

AI resolving questions on Metaculus

188 comments3k forecasters

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

17 comments149 forecasters

Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040