composing critical contingencies composing accurate predictions crowdsourcing probable insights computing quantitative understanding crowdsourcing calibrated estimations mapping the future formulating precise estimations exploring intelligent forecasts calculating precise insights forecasting calibrated insights crowdsourcing quantitative wisdom mapping contingent wisdom crowdsourcing calibrated forecasts calculating quantitative insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?

Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) is a human spaceflight development program that is funded by the U.S. government and administered by NASA. CCDev will result in US and international astronauts flying to the International Space Station (ISS) on privately operated crew vehicles.

Operational contracts to fly astronauts were awarded in September 2014 to SpaceX and Boeing.

Both companies suffered delays.

SpaceX already managed to successfully demonstrate uncrewed test flight in March 2019, while Boeing is still planning this step no earlier than August 2019. However, SpaceX suffered a setback due to an explosion of a test spacecraft during testing on Earth.

Metaculus previously estimated:

Both crewed test flights of Dragon 2 and CST-100 are scheduled no earlier than November 2019. With SpaceX targeting 15 November 2019 and Boeing 30 November 2019.

This question asks:

Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?

For this question to resolve positively Boeing needs to deliver 2 living astronauts to International Space Station before SpaceX. The question will resolve negatively if SpaceX manages to do the same before Boeing. The question will resolve ambiguous if neither SpaceX nor Boeing manage to meet the goal before 2025.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.