Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?


Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) is a human spaceflight development program that is funded by the U.S. government and administered by NASA. CCDev will result in US and international astronauts flying to the International Space Station (ISS) on privately operated crew vehicles.

Operational contracts to fly astronauts were awarded in September 2014 to SpaceX and Boeing.

Both companies suffered delays.

SpaceX already managed to successfully demonstrate uncrewed test flight in March 2019, while Boeing is still planning this step no earlier than August 2019. However, SpaceX suffered a setback due to an explosion of a test spacecraft during testing on Earth.

Metaculus previously estimated:

Both crewed test flights of Dragon 2 and CST-100 are scheduled no earlier than November 2019. With SpaceX targeting 15 November 2019 and Boeing 30 November 2019.

This question asks:

Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?

For this question to resolve positively Boeing needs to deliver 2 living astronauts to International Space Station before SpaceX. The question will resolve negatively if SpaceX manages to do the same before Boeing. The question will resolve ambiguous if neither SpaceX nor Boeing manage to meet the goal before 2025.

Technology – Space

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.