Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
On July 23 2019, it was announced that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.
This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.
Note that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.