📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?

Resolved :Yes80%
4
14
Total Forecasters26
Community Prediction80% (70% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 80%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
67.5
Community Peer Score
1.5
Authors:
Sylvain
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Politics
2019 Leaderboard
Google
Hong Kong
2019–20 Hong Kong protests
Google Search
Google Trends

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