aggregating accurate forecasts assembling precise estimations composing probable wisdom exploring calibrated contingencies composing definitive forecasts mapping the future modeling critical forecasts mapping calibrated estimations calculating critical estimations computing predictive contingencies composing precise predictions forecasting calibrated wisdom formulating quantitative contingencies predicting predictive predictions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?

Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).

As a proxy for the popularity of the protests, we can look at the daily Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" in Hong Kong (Google Trends).

Question: Between wednesday the 7th of August 2019 and Tuesday the 13th of August 2019 (incl.), will the daily Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" in Hong Kong go to at least 25% of the 12th of June 2019 value (the record as of writing)?

Precisions:

  • Resolves positive if the linked Google Trends shows any day in the relevant period with a search volume >= 25% of the 12th of June peak.

  • Resolves negative if no day satisfies this criterion.

  • In case of positive resolution, the question will be retroactively closed to the day before the day triggering resolution.

  • Google Trends being inaccessible or fundamentally changing their methodology resolves ambiguous.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.