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28 forecasters

28 forecasters

AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q4

Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?

ResolvedNo

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

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11 comments30 forecasters

Levy Rozman GM

15 comments72 forecasters

Next #1 FIDE-Ranked Chess Player

Fabiano Caruana22.2%

Nodirbek Abdusattorov13%

Dommaraju Gukesh13%

Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu10%

3 comments14 forecasters

Atomic Chess solved by 2100?

Win for White30.9%

Win for Black2.1%

No Proof by 210045.6%

11 comments170 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

1 comment11 forecasters

Hans Niemann World Chess Champion before 2050?

8 comments57 forecasters

Highest score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on Jan 1, 2028?

Current estimate

15 comments81 forecasters

2027 AI Bet winner between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage?

Miles Brundage12%

22 comments30 forecasters

General AI solves International Math Olympiad

Current estimate