65 comments
75 forecasters
Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?
3%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 3% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 9, 2019
Closes:Aug 31, 2019
Resolved:Sep 7, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 10, 2019
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
16% chance
95
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
3% chance
38
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1% chance
34