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In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?

The Small Arms Survey collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the 2017 survey (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.

In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?


  • Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published)
  • If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins.
  • If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous.


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