assembling quantitative futures forecasting accurate estimations modeling precise predictions exploring precise forecasts mapping probable contingencies mapping the future aggregating intelligent contingencies composing intelligent predictions computing accurate predictions formulating contingent predictions generating probable forecasts generating critical predictions modeling contingent understanding aggregating critical predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Google release a chatbot in 2016?

Author, inventor, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil is known as a public advocate for the Singularity, predicting that within decades, artificial intelligence will surpass that of human beings. In 2012, Kurzweil was hired as Google’s Director of Engineering, with a focus on projects involving machine learning and natural language processing.

At a May 2016 conference held by Singularity University, Kurzweil announced that his Google team is working on a chatbot to be released later this year. One of the bots will be named Danielle, after the titular character of Kurzweil’s yet-to-be-released novel. Kurzweil described a chatbot that, given substantial writing samples from a unique user, could be personalized to adopt the writer’s “style, personality, and ideas”. The anticipated bots will be able to hold conversations that are “interesting,” though not yet near the sophistication of human-to-human communication.

The story broke via a video from the conference posted on technology and culture website The video has since been removed due to copyright restrictions by Singularity University; no official announcement of Kurzweil's project has been made by Google.

Kurzweil’s announcement comes at a time of chatbot development among tech giants. The CEO of Microsoft recently declared that chatbots will revolutionize computing, although Microsoft suffered an embarrassing setback in March when its Twitter chatbot had to be disabled in less than a day after learning hate speech from users. Facebook’s Messenger app features over 11,000 chatbots for users to converse with. Earlier this year, Google itself released a new smart messaging app, Allo, that learns a user’s texting style in order to provide intelligent suggestions for conversations with other humans.

Will Kurzweil’s Google team release Danielle or another chatbot by the end of 2016?

For a positive resolution there must be by Dec. 31, 2016 a publicly accessible chatbot (potentially with signup or even fees but open in principle to anyone) released by Google or another child company of Alphabet, Inc. Release notes or credible media report must indicate a connection between this chatbot and the program run by Kuzweil at Google.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.