Question

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction

Oct 2025

(Sep 2024 - Aug 2028)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Aug 2050
community	Sep 2024	Oct 2025	Aug 2028	6.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Sep 2024	—
median	Oct 2025	—
upper 75%	Aug 2028	—
Upper bound
>254335680000%	6.6%	—

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Aug 15, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 17, 2019

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Aug 15, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 17, 2019

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Could AI Become Conscious?

Lew Rockwell•Mar 20, 2025

The AI leaders bringing the AGI debate down to Earth

TechCrunch•Mar 19, 2025

Mind and Machine: David Eagleman on What the Brain Can Teach Us About AI

Newsweek•Mar 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2029

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2031