Question
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
Total Forecasters93
Community Prediction
02 Dec 2025
(03 Oct 2024 - 08 Dec 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 03 Oct 2024 | — |
| median | 02 Dec 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 08 Dec 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Aug 2050 | 6.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2019