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If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

The Ragnarök Question Series asks whether there will be a biotechnological catastrophe, for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.

Since biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.

Given that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?

Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.