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26
113
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3
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113 forecasters
Elections
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Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map?
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What will be the Dem Electoral College margin in 2028?
Current estimate
-0.644 votes
4 comments
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Change in Average Inflation Rate 2028 PV Prediction
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
60%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election
40%
2 comments
93 forecasters
US House maps show a ≥20 seat party advantage in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
20%
2027-2028
24%
0 comments
135 forecasters
What will be US' Democracy Index for 2026?
Current estimate
7.51
7 comments
43 forecasters
Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?
99.9%
chance
16 comments
161 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
chance
0 comments
54 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2026 Senate Election in these states?
Georgia
83%
Iowa
38.2%
Maine
70%
Michigan
75%
19 others
5 comments
25 forecasters
US States Won by Non-Major Parties in 2028
1%
chance