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Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map?

The fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin.

See for example this writeup on Mashable.

Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and correctly predict the outcome in every state?

This will resolve as correct if the final prediction from fivethirtyeight.com before the election matches exactly the electoral results post-election for each state. (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split; for these two states, success requires all the districts to be called correctly.) If the site has multiple prediction models showing as of the day before the election, whichever is highlighted as their best pick will be used.

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Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.