Question
When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?
Resolved:01 Mar 2020 16:00Total Forecasters27
Community Prediction
11 Nov 2022
(10 Sep 2020 - Dec 2029)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 10 Sep 2020 | — |
| median | 11 Nov 2022 | — |
| upper 75% | Dec 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2060 | 1.0% | — |
What was the final result?01 Mar 2020 16:00
Community Peer Score
0.2
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2095
Resolves:Jan 1, 2095
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2095
Resolves:Jan 1, 2095
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2019