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When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?
As of 2019-08-21, Metaculus' community prediction gives a probability of 0.38 that there will be a global catastrophe reducing the population by at least 10%, and a probability of of 0.29 that this catastrophe will be due to an AI failure mode, for a probability of 0.1102, corresponding to an odds ratio of 0.124.
Halving this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.0583, and doubling this odds ratio corresponds to a probability of 0.1985. The Metaculus prediction leaving this range would represent a substantial increase in the community's confidence on whether or not AI is a major risk.
This may either be because of some new information about AI catastrophe coming to life, or because 2100 is soon enough that the chance of AI catastrophe happening by then is less than half of what it is now.
When will the product of the median of the community's predictions for "By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?" and "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?" first leave the range [5.83%, 19.85%]?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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