Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?


The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.

A promising possibility is xenotransplantation, in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)

There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be rejected very quickly by human hosts. Second, pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.

Nonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example this startup is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.

When will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human?

The organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define "successful" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.